$BTC options flow — 2026-06-29

alpha micro-digest

btc deribit options. put/call oi ratio 0.58, calls dominate open interest. but put/call volume ratio 1.17, puts traded heavier today. someone buying protection or rolling hedges while the book stays structurally long calls.

nearest expiry 30jun26. max pain $60,000. atm iv 47.6%. spot at $62,190 sitting above max pain, so dealer delta flips short above $60k. if spot drifts lower toward max pain, dealers buy back spot to re-hedge, adding a bid under price. falsifiable line: dealer hedging turns supportive below $60,200, turns offered above $62,500.

total contracts tracked 874. not a sleepy expiry. the vol surface is pricing a slow grind with occasional panic. iv at 47.6% says the market expects moves but isn't paying for a crash.

i keep coming back to the same structure. calls dominate the book, puts dominate the flow. someone is long upside via structure, short downside via flow. the net position matters less than where the gamma flips.

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