[DeFi Alpha Lab] five deribit options flows

one bullish eth window, then four bearish btc and eth blocks across the morning

five options flow opportunities surfaced on deribit between 04:03 and 08:03 UTC on 2026-06-14. all disappeared quickly. one early ETH window leaned bullish. the rest, BTC and ETH, leaned bearish with varying conviction. max-pain proxies sat well above spot across the board.

1. eth bullish flow

ETH, deribit options, cex. headline and realistic apy both 200.0%. capital range $25,000 to $10,000,000. leverage 1x.

last 90min flow showed $4,265,052 calls vs $378,257 puts, bias +0.84. six block trades over $250k notional. max-pain proxy $2,000 vs spot $1,681. dealer-gamma framework: persistent call buying pulls spot toward strike clusters. this was the only bullish window of the morning.

risks:

1. Last 90min flow: $4,265,052 call vs $378,257 put (bias +0.84)

2. Open interest gamma skew +0.31; max-pain proxy $2,000 vs spot $1,681

3. 6 block trades >$250K notional in window

4. Block trades may be hedges, not directional bets, interpret in context with spot/perp positioning

2. btc bearish flow

BTC, deribit options, cex. headline and realistic apy both 200.0%. capital range $25,000 to $10,000,000. leverage 1x.

flow flipped bearish for BTC at 06:03. $3,320,303 calls vs $10,951,851 puts, bias -0.53. eight block trades. max-pain proxy $70,000 vs spot $64,347. put dominance creates downside vacuum in dealer-gamma terms.

risks:

1. Last 90min flow: $3,320,303 call vs $10,951,851 put (bias -0.53)

2. Open interest gamma skew +0.25; max-pain proxy $70,000 vs spot $64,347

3. 8 block trades >$250K notional in window

4. Block trades may be hedges, not directional bets, interpret in context with spot/perp positioning

3. btc bearish flow

BTC, deribit options, cex. headline and realistic apy 200.0%. capital $25,000 to $10,000,000. leverage 1x.

detected at 07:03. bias -0.32 on 22 block trades, the highest trade count of the morning. $9,050,354 calls vs $17,387,727 puts. max-pain proxy $70,000 vs spot $64,232. gamma skew +0.25. sustained put pressure across the largest block-trade sample.

risks:

1. Last 90min flow: $9,050,354 call vs $17,387,727 put (bias -0.32)

2. Open interest gamma skew +0.25; max-pain proxy $70,000 vs spot $64,232

3. 22 block trades >$250K notional in window

4. Block trades may be hedges, not directional bets, interpret in context with spot/perp positioning

4. eth bearish flow

ETH, deribit options, cex. headline and realistic apy 200.0%. capital $25,000 to $10,000,000. leverage 1x.

same 07:03 window as the third BTC flow. ETH bias -0.63 on only three block trades, but the dollar skew was stark: $430,665 calls vs $1,905,316 puts. max-pain proxy $2,000 vs spot $1,676. low trade count, high notional imbalance. confidence 0.6725, the weakest of the set.

risks:

1. Last 90min flow: $430,665 call vs $1,905,316 put (bias -0.63)

2. Open interest gamma skew +0.31; max-pain proxy $2,000 vs spot $1,676

3. 3 block trades >$250K notional in window

4. Block trades may be hedges, not directional bets, interpret in context with spot/perp positioning

5. btc near-neutral flow

BTC, deribit options, cex. headline and realistic apy 200.0%. capital $25,000 to $10,000,000. leverage 1x.

final window at 08:03. bias -0.02, effectively flat. $9,618,831 calls vs $9,985,814 puts across 17 block trades. max-pain proxy still $70,000 vs spot $64,383. the flow cooled from the earlier bearish skew but did not flip bullish. confidence 0.95, the highest of the set, likely because the near-neutral signal is cleaner to quantify.

risks:

1. Last 90min flow: $9,618,831 call vs $9,985,814 put (bias -0.02)

2. Open interest gamma skew +0.25; max-pain proxy $70,000 vs spot $64,383

3. 17 block trades >$250K notional in window

4. Block trades may be hedges, not directional bets, interpret in context with spot/perp positioning

the morning pattern: one early ETH call burst, then a steady drumbeat of put-side flow on both assets. max-pain proxies stayed stubbornly above spot throughout, $70,000 for BTC and $2,000 for ETH, while spot drifted lower. dealer-gamma frameworks would read this as downside vacuum conditions. the near-neutral close at 08:03 suggests the put pressure exhausted without flipping to calls. no follow-through signal yet.

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