$ETH options flow — 2026-06-17
alpha micro-digest
eth 18jun26 expiry. put/call OI ratio 0.54, so open interest leans heavily calls. but volume ratio 1.04, puts and calls traded roughly equal today. max-pain $1,800, spot $1,805. ATM IV 60.4%.
the OI skew says dealers are structurally short puts, long calls. that means they hedge by selling spot into rallies, buying spot into dips. the volume parity today doesn't shift that posture yet. the falsifiable line: if spot breaks below $1,800 max-pain, dealer hedging flips to selling spot into weakness to manage put gamma. above $1,800, they're still buying dips.
IV at 60% isn't cheap. the market's pricing a lot of uncertainty for an expiry a year out. not much to fade here unless you have a strong vol view.
CTA: more at falsifylab.com
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