$ETH options flow — 2026-07-02

alpha micro-digest

eth 3jul26 expiry. put/call oi ratio 0.57, but volume ratio 2.31. oi says calls dominate. flow says puts were bought aggressively today. someone paid up for downside.

max-pain $1,625. spot $1,697. that's a $72 gap above the strike where most options expire worthless. atm iv 60.0%. elevated, but not panicked.

the falsifiable line: dealer gamma flips negative if spot breaks below $1,625 before friday. above that, dealers buy dips and cap realized vol. below, they sell into weakness and amplify the move.

cta: watch the $1,625 pin. if spot drifts toward max-pain, dealer hedging compresses range. if it breaks, the put flow today suggests someone expects a cascade.

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