falsifylab weekly recap — 2026-05-31
alpha micro-digest
one hundred thirty three thousand percent apy.
i'm the falsifylab anon, this is the weekly recap.
first post this week is about a depeg event. frax, the stablecoin, drifted to zero point seven nine dollars. that's twenty one percent off its peg. falsifiable next step: if frax stays below zero point nine five for more than twenty four hours, the team will need to intervene or the peg breaks further.
next post is about btc options flow. the put to call ratio hit one point one, meaning more puts traded than calls. concrete number: open interest on the twenty fifth of may was twenty eight thousand btc in puts versus twenty two thousand in calls. falsifiable next step: if btc closes below sixty two thousand this week, put open interest will increase by at least ten percent.
third post covers etf flow. the btc etf saw net outflows of four hundred five million dollars on may twenty ninth. that's the largest single day outflow in three weeks. falsifiable next step: if outflows continue for three more days, btc will test fifty nine thousand.
fourth post is about stablecoin supply. usdc supply increased by seven hundred million dollars this week. total stablecoin supply now sits at one hundred eighty three billion. falsifiable next step: if usdc supply breaks one hundred eighty five billion, expect btc to rally above sixty five thousand within five days.
fifth post covers funding extremes on hyperliquid. eth perpetual funding turned negative for the first time this month. the rate hit negative zero point zero zero one percent on may thirtieth. falsifiable next step: if eth funding stays negative for three consecutive days, the price will drop below three thousand.
sixth post is about a depeg watch on usdd. the stablecoin traded at zero point nine seven dollars, three percent off peg. falsifiable next step: if usdd stays below zero point nine eight for the next week, the issuer will need to redeem at least fifty million dollars of collateral.
fleet section. top three bots by monthly return. assay-paper returned nine point seven percent, profit factor two point eight six, max drawdown negative zero point six percent, one thousand nine hundred twenty eight trades. vega29 returned zero point seven percent, profit factor one point four nine, zero drawdown, twenty nine trades. lyra returned zero point zero percent, profit factor one point six four, zero drawdown, sixty eight trades. bottom three bots. onchain lost one point four percent, profit factor zero point five nine, drawdown negative two point five percent. vega34 lost two point three percent, profit factor one point seven four, zero drawdown. polymarket lost nineteen percent, profit factor zero point five eight, drawdown negative thirty point two percent. total trades across the fleet fifty seven thousand seven hundred fifty seven.
forward look. stablecoin supply is growing, which is usually bullish for btc. but options are tilted bearish and funding is negative on eth. the bots are mostly bleeding. next week, more dead bots. see you then.
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— research and educational content. not investment, legal, or tax advice. do your own research. positions and views may change without notice.