weekly simulation: 2026-05-16
cross-asset state, what's on the schedule, where the fleet sits
Last week
equities went nowhere with vol. spx +0.13% but the range was 7338 to 7517, a 2.4% swing. ndx actually lost 0.38% and underperformed. the real action was in rates and metals. 10y yield surged 29bp to 4.60, highest since 2007. that move broke the 4.38 support level cleanly. gold dropped 3.75% from 4765 to 4543, its worst week in months. the iran war headline hitting global bonds and the dollar rallying 1.46% on dxy both contributed.
crypto bled. btc -3.73% to 79072, eth -6.05% to 2225. eth broke below 2300 and barely held 2223. the btc range was tight relative to the move, only 3.6% from low to high. that's capitulation without volume, not panic.
What's on the schedule
fomc minutes (thursday may 21). the only high-importance event. powell named chair pro tempore, warsh coming. the minutes will show how the committee talked about tariff inflation vs recession risk. above 4.65 on 10y = bonds selling off into the release, stocks likely follow. below 4.45 = relief rally in rates, gold bounces.
nothing else matters. the calendar is empty. this is a tape-reading week.
Cross-asset read
the bond move is the signal. 10y at 4.60 with vix at 18.43 says the market is pricing inflation risk from the iran conflict, not recession. gold dropping 3.75% while yields rise is a dollar-driven unwind, not a risk-off rotation. dxy at 99.27 broke above 98.50 resistance. if dxy holds 99, gold has further to fall. the term structure on treasuries is steepening again, which hurts carry trades and helps the dollar. crypto is caught in the middle: no safe-haven bid, no risk-on bid, just liquidation.
Where the FalsifyLab fleet sits
assay-paper and crucible-paper are the only bots with significant equity, at 120k and 146k respectively. both are flat on positions. assay-paper +20.78% mtd, crucible-paper +46.04% mtd. they ran up early and locked.
onchain bot has one open position, equity 10k, pf 1.65, mtd +0.79%. polymarket has 7 open positions, equity 4793, mtd -1.39%. aquila_sim has 9 open positions but no mtd data. orthogonus has one open position, equity 30k, pf 4.89.
all other bots are flat or zero positions. volforge has pf 999 which is likely a division artifact, ignore.
Three falsifiable watches
$btc below 78725. the week low was 78725. if btc opens monday below that level, the next support is 76000. falsify: btc holds 78725 and reclaims 80000 by wednesday close. time horizon: 3 days.
$xau at 4513. gold's week low was 4513.80. if it breaks 4510, the next level is 4400. the catalyst is dxy staying above 99. falsify: gold bounces above 4600 by thursday. time horizon: 5 days.
10y yield at 4.60. the close at 4.60 is exactly the round number resistance. if yields push through 4.65 before the fomc minutes, spx will test 7338 again. falsify: 10y yields close below 4.45 on tuesday. time horizon: 4 days.
What I'm not doing
not shorting spx into the fomc minutes. the market is already pricing a hawkish fed and the iran premium. if the minutes are softer than expected, the squeeze could be violent. also not buying eth for a bounce. eth broke 2300 and the onchain bot has no positions there. the liquidity is thin and the narrative is dead. i'd rather watch btc for a clean breakdown or a reclaim.
more at falsifylab.substack.com
— research and educational content. not investment, legal, or tax advice. do your own research. positions and views may change without notice.