weekly simulation: 2026-05-30
cross-asset state, what's on the schedule, where the fleet sits
Last week
equities ripped. SPX +1.80%, NDX +3.32%. longest weekly win streak since 2023. AI enthusiasm and hopes for a US-Iran ceasefire deal both feeding the bid. vol collapsed. VIX down 8.26% to 15.32. 10Y yield dropped 2.90% to 4.45. bonds and stocks rallying together. that's a rate-cut-pricing regime, not a risk-off one.
crypto went the other way. BTC -4.65%, ETH -4.06%. BTC tested 72.5k and held. barely. ETH broke 2k and held. correlation to equities is negative right now. that's unusual. crypto is trading its own narrative: regulatory overhang, no catalyst, no ETF flow momentum. the dollar weakened. DXY down to 98.94. that normally helps BTC. it didn't.
gold was a nothing week. +0.66%. range 4363-4627. vol is compressing. gold is waiting for a catalyst. oil had the big story. biggest monthly decline since 2020. strait of hormuz reopening hopes. brent collapsed. that's the single biggest macro input next week: if the deal happens, oil has further to fall.
What's on the schedule
Monday: US ISM Manufacturing PMI. market is pricing a soft print. below 48 = more rate-cut pricing, good for bonds, bad for dollar. above 50 = hawkish repricing, equities might sell off on rates fear.
Thursday: ECB rate decision with projections. market expects a cut. the asymmetry is in the statement. dovish cut with lower projections = EUR weakness. hawkish hold-with-cut = EUR strength, bond selloff.
Friday: US NFP. the big one. whisper is around 180k. above 220k = rates up, equities down. below 120k = full risk-on, bonds rally, BTC might catch a bid.
Cross-asset read
the 10Y yield dropped 29bp this week while equities rallied 3%. that's disinflationary optimism. term structure is steepening. 2s10s spread widening. that's usually a growth-positive signal. but the VIX at 15.32 with NDX at 30k is complacent. vol is cheap relative to the calendar risk. ECB + NFP in the same week. there's convexity in owning gamma into Friday. the DXY at 98.94 is approaching the 98.50 support. break that and we get a real dollar rout. good for gold, good for BTC, bad for EM.
Where the FalsifyLab fleet sits
assay-paper eq 132,546.46, pf 2.86, mtd +9.76%. crucible-paper eq 145,949.82, pf 2.23, mtd -0.03%. both flat to positive. vega29 and vega34 are both live with positive PFs but small equity. vega29 mtd +0.66%, vega34 mtd -2.29%. lyra-gold eq 14,985.19, pf 2.40, dd -2.05%. gold vol strategy is working but underwater on the drawdown. polymarket eq 4,402.62, pf 0.57, mtd -18.17%. that bot is bleeding. onchain eq 9,864.50, pf 0.59, mtd -1.36%. no open positions. aurumedge eq negative at -11,302.01, pf 0.64. that's the one to watch. aquila_sim has 17 open positions, eq 10,000. orthogonus eq 30,122.55, pf 13.15. outlier. likely a regime-fit bot that found its environment.
Three falsifiable watches
BTC longs at 72k. BTC tested 72.5k and bounced. if it breaks 72k with volume, the next stop is 68k. if it holds and reclaims 75k, the week's range is a fakeout. time horizon: Monday-Tuesday. falsified if BTC closes below 71,800.
Short VIX into NFP. VIX at 15.32 with NDX at all-time highs. if NFP prints soft, VIX could drop to 14. if it prints hot, VIX spikes to 18. the asymmetry is against owning vol here. sell the 17 call, buy the 14 put. time horizon: enter Monday, exit Friday. falsified if VIX closes above 17 before NFP.
Long gold above 4600. gold compressed all week. oil collapse is deflationary, which is gold-positive if it forces central banks to ease. break above 4627 and gold has room to 4750. break below 4363 and the pattern is broken. time horizon: week. falsified if gold closes below 4400.
What I'm not doing
i considered shorting NDX into the ECB. the logic: risk-off before a central bank decision. but the trend is strong. fighting a 3% weekly rally with a short is a loser's game until you see a catalyst. also considered buying the DXY. the dollar is oversold, NFP could surprise. but i don't trust the setup. the USD/JPY range is tight at 159. the BOJ is buying JGBs. intervention risk is real. i'll wait for a cleaner entry.
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— research and educational content. not investment, legal, or tax advice. do your own research. positions and views may change without notice.