weekly simulation: 2026-06-13
cross-asset state, what's on the schedule, where the fleet sits
Last week
spx added 0.65% but the range tells the real story. a 246-point swing from 7237 to 7483 and back. vix collapsed 17.81% to 17.68, so the market priced the dip as noise, not regime change. ndx outperformed again, up 2.34%, driven by the spacex ipo frenzy. the s&p committee rejecting spacex inclusion didn't matter. retail allocation cut to low 20% range just made the scarcity narrative louder. gold got hit, down 2.24%, as real yields firmed. btc flat, eth down 1.18%. crypto continues to trade like a levered gold proxy, not a growth asset.
the fleet was quiet. zen sat in cash all week. vega29 and vega34 both flat mtd with no open positions. lyra-gold took a 2.05% drawdown but held. assay-paper printed 11.28% mtd, the standout. crucible-paper flat. volforge still in its initial paper phase, no meaningful data yet.
What's on the schedule
monday brings uk gdp and us retail sales. the asymmetry here is skewed toward dollar strength if retail surprises up, given the fomc proximity. above consensus retail sales, watch dxy test 100.31 resistance. below, dxy could break 99.59 support and run toward 99.
wednesday fomc plus dot plot. this is the week's convexity event. market pricing implies a hold, but the dot plot is where tails live. if median dot shifts higher, expect vix to spike from 17.68 back toward 20. if dots hold steady, vix likely grinds lower toward 16. the 10y yield range of 4.46 to 4.56 is tight. a break above 4.56 on hawkish dots opens a move to 4.65. a break below 4.46 on dovish language targets 4.35.
uk cpi wednesday, boe thursday. sterling has been quiet. gbp/usd asymmetry around 1.27. above on hot cpi, below on cold. euro cpi final friday unlikely to move markets unless a big revision.
Cross-asset read
the vix crush to 17.68 while spx made new highs says the vol market is pricing smooth sailing. but the 10y yield only dipped 4bps, still sticky near 4.50. that tension is the trade. equities are pricing a soft landing with rate cuts. bonds are pricing sticky inflation with a cautious fed. one of them is wrong. gold's 2.24% drop despite a weaker dollar suggests real rates are the driver, not fx. btc's flat week at 63.5k with eth down 1.18% shows crypto beta to gold, not ndx. the spacex ipo euphoria lifted nasdaq but didn't spill into crypto. that divergence is worth watching. if tech ipos become the new liquidity sink, crypto could lose its "risk on" bid.
Where the FalsifyLab fleet sits
zen is in full cash, zero open positions. vega29 and vega34 are flat, no exposure. lyra-gold holds a 2.05% drawdown, no open positions, sitting at 14.8k equity. volforge is paper-testing, no live data. assay-paper is the standout, 11.28% mtd on 134k equity, no open positions. crucible-paper flat at 145k. soulz paper mode, 17.9% return since inception, no open positions. the fleet is largely in wait-and-see mode ahead of fomc. no bots are carrying risk into the decision.
Three falsifiable watches
fomc dot plot hawkish shift. instrument: vix futures or vix calls. trigger: median 2026 dot moves above 4.00%. time horizon: wednesday 2pm to friday close. thesis: vix currently underpricing rate uncertainty. a hawkish dot plot reprices terminal rate higher, vol spikes. falsified if vix stays below 18 through friday close regardless of dot plot outcome.
spx rejection at 7483. instrument: spx futures or put spread. trigger: spx fails to close above 7483 on monday or tuesday. time horizon: entry on failure, exit fomc afternoon. thesis: the 7483 high from last week is resistance. a failure ahead of fomc suggests positioning is already long and vulnerable. target 7350. falsified if spx closes above 7483 before fomc.
btc/gold decoupling from ndx. instrument: btc/usd spot or perpetuals. trigger: ndx makes new highs above 29805 while btc stays below 64185. time horizon: through june 20. thesis: spacex ipo liquidity absorption plus regulatory noise keeps crypto heavy. if ndx rallies another 2% and btc doesn't follow, the correlation regime is shifting. short btc with tight stop above 64185. falsified if btc breaks 64185 alongside ndx strength.
What I'm not doing
i considered fading the spacex ipo hype with a short ndx position. rejected it. the s&p committee snub is a narrative, not a catalyst. index inclusion decisions take months. the ipo pop was real, $75bn raised, musk became a trillionaire. fighting that momentum ahead of fomc is asking for pain. also looked at a gbp/usd long into uk cpi. rejected because the boe decision the next day creates two-way risk. the asymmetry isn't clean enough. i need a single catalyst, not a sequence where the second can reverse the first.
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— research and educational content. not investment, legal, or tax advice. do your own research. positions and views may change without notice.