weekly simulation: 2026-06-20
cross-asset state, what's on the schedule, where the fleet sits
Last week
spx printed 7420, up 2.11% on the week. the range was tight early, then broke higher thursday after the iran deal headlines. vix collapsed 13.68% to 16.78. that is a vol crush, not a drift. the index ran from 7257 to 7577 intraweek. the close gave back some of the friday euphoria. still, the week ended with spx holding above the 7400 strike wall that dealers had been defending.
ndx was the real story. up 4.08%, range 28548 to 30587. that is a 7% intraweek swing. spacex ipo frenzy spilled into anything with a tech multiple. the index tagged 30k and backed off. the rejection was clean. 30k is a level now, not just a number.
gold sold off 1% to 4172. range 4138 to 4377. the iran deal crushed the geopolitical bid. xau broke below the 4200 support that held for three weeks. next test is 4100. btc followed the same script, down 1.48% to 63468. eth bucked the trend, up 1.61% to 1707. the eth/btc ratio is trying to turn. nky was the outlier, up 8.92%. yen weakness and a dovish boj leak drove it. usd/jpy at 161.28, dxy up 0.99% to 100.85. the dollar is quietly strengthening. ten year yield down to 4.49, a 1.43% drop. bonds caught a bid despite the equity rally. that is a divergence worth watching.
What's on the schedule
euro pmi flash composite, monday. consensus is not the trade. the trade is whether the number breaks the recent downtrend. above 52, euro rallies and dxy gives back the 101 level. below 50, the contraction narrative accelerates. asymmetry favors euro downside. the market is still long eu recovery hope.
japan cpi national, friday. the boj has been leaking dovish signals. if cpi prints above 3.2%, that narrative breaks. usd/jpy could spike through 162. if below 2.8%, the dovish trade is confirmed and nky gets another leg. the range is wide. the market is underpricing the tail.
us durable goods, friday. secondary data but in a week with little else, it moves the needle. above 1.5% mom, the soft landing thesis strengthens. below negative 0.5%, recession fears creep back. the vix is at 16.78. cheap enough to buy gamma into the print.
Cross-asset read
the term structure is compressing. vix at 16.78 with spx at 7420 is not normal. it implies the market has priced out tail risk aggressively. the iran deal and spacex ipo acted as vol suppressants. but the bond market is not confirming. ten year yield fell while equities ripped. that is a classic late cycle divergence. either bonds are right and equities are about to correct, or equities are right and bonds are mispriced. gold's break below 4200 adds weight to the risk on read. but the dollar is strengthening. dxy above 101 would be a problem for emerging markets and commodities. the cross currents are messy. carry trades are working. funding rates in perps are positive but not extreme. the regime is risk on with a fragile foundation.
Where the FalsifyLab fleet sits
vega29 flat, eq 10199, mtd up 0.66%. vega34 flat, eq 10139, mtd down 2.29%. both vol bots closed positions before the vix crush. good timing. lyra gold flat, eq 14795, dd negative 2.05%. the gold selloff hit it but the bot stayed out of trouble. volforge flat, eq 10148. assay paper up 8.35% mtd, eq 134384, pf 2.94. crucible paper flat, eq 145949, pf 2.23. soulz flat, eq 11745. the fleet is in cash. no open positions across seven bots. that is unusual. it means the models see no edge right now. when the bots all agree to sit out, i pay attention.
Three falsifiable watches
spx 7400 put spread for the pmi print. buy the 7400/7350 put spread expiring monday. cost roughly 12 points. if euro pmi prints below 50, spx could gap down 1.5% and the spread pays 38 points. falsified if spx closes monday above 7400. the trade is a vol bet, not a direction bet. vix at 16.78 makes the premium cheap.
usd/jpy long into japan cpi. enter at 161.28, target 162.50, stop 160.50. the asymmetry is that a hot cpi print breaks the boj dovish narrative and usd/jpy runs. a cold print and the pair drifts but the stop limits loss. falsified if usd/jpy trades below 160.50 before friday's print. the carry is positive. the risk reward is 2.5 to 1.
eth/btc ratio long. eth at 1707, btc at 63468. ratio is 0.0269. target 0.029, stop 0.026. eth is showing relative strength. the spacex ipo euphoria is fading and capital could rotate back to onchain assets. falsified if the ratio closes below 0.026 on any day this week. time horizon two weeks. this is a slow grind trade, not an event trade.
What I'm not doing
i considered shorting gold after the 4200 break. the iran deal removed the geopolitical bid and the chart looks weak. but the dollar rally is fragile. if dxy fails at 101, gold snaps back. the risk reward is symmetric, not asymmetric. i also looked at shorting nky after the 8.92% rip. parabolic moves revert. but the boj cpi print is a binary event. shorting into it is gambling, not trading. i rejected both. the fleet being all cash reinforces the caution. when seven bots agree there is no edge, forcing a trade is ego, not process.
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educational only. past performance is not predictive. none of this is financial advice.
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