weekly simulation: 2026-06-26
cross-asset state, what's on the schedule, where the fleet sits
Last week
gold got wrecked. down 7.47% on the week, slicing through 4200 and 4000 like they weren't there. closed at 4033 with a weekly range that touched 4323 on the high side. the dxy ripped 1.39% to 101.48 and that was the wrecking ball. real rates didn't help. 10y yield only dropped 2.12% but the dollar bid was relentless. gold's 7.47% weekly drawdown is the outlier in an otherwise orderly risk-off week.
crypto followed the same script but with more venom. btc down 7.28%, eth smoked at negative 10.17%. eth/btc ratio getting punished again. eth closed at 1562, barely 11 bucks above the weekly low of 1551. that's not a level you want to be hugging on a friday close. btc held 59k but the range was 59029 to 65544. the high was monday. it's been distribution since.
equities were almost boring by comparison. spx down 0.84%, ndx down 0.78%. vix only up 2.44% to 18.89. the real action was under the hood. micron ripped on earnings. apple got hammered on the 20% price hike news, lost 263bn in market cap. tech rotated, didn't crash. nky down 0.96% with usd/jpy grinding to 161.82. that 162 level is the one to watch.
What's on the schedule
japan cpi national today. already priced some hawkishness with usd/jpy at 161.82. above 162.50 and the carry trade re-levers. below 161 and yen strength feeds the risk-off loop. asymmetry: usd/jpy above 162.50 opens 164, below 161 targets 158.
us durable goods today. secondary to the inflation story but a big miss would validate the "fed behind the curve" narrative that's been building. watching the 10y at 4.36. a break below that and bonds are pricing recession not just disinflation.
euro cpi flash monday. the big one. core sticky above 2.5% and ecb has a problem. below 2.3% and the euro gets sold, dxy rips again, gold tests 3900.
us pce deflator monday. the fed's preferred measure. market is twitchy after goolsbee said inflation too high, williams said it's easing. someone's wrong. pce above 2.8% core y/y and the july cut gets priced out completely. below 2.5% and we're back to two cuts this year.
ism manufacturing tuesday, nfp friday. the employment situation is the week's climax. whisper number matters more than headline. anything below 100k and the soft landing thesis cracks.
Cross-asset read
the dollar is the only thing that worked this week. dxy up 1.39% while everything else bled. that's a liquidity squeeze, not a growth story. gold's correlation with real rates broke down. it traded like a risk asset, not a haven. the 10y yield dropping while equities only dipped 0.8% says the bond market is more worried than the stock market. vix at 18.89 is complacent given the cross-asset stress. either equities catch down to bonds next week or bonds reverse and yields rip. the vol surface isn't pricing the latter. convexity favors long vol here. the vix term structure is flat. front month at 18.89 with no real premium for event risk. that's a bet that nothing breaks. i'm not taking that bet.
Where the FalsifyLab fleet sits
all bots flat into the weekend. no open positions across the fleet. vega29 and vega34 both closed out whatever they had. vega34 took a 2.29% mtd hit but paper pf still 1.74. lyra-gold sitting at 14795 equity with a 2.42 pf and only 2.05% max dd. that bot's been the star. assay-paper up 3.86% mtd with a 2.94 pf. crucible-paper flat on the month. volforge and soulz idle. the fleet's posture is defensive. no one wants to carry risk through a weekend with pce and nfp on deck.
Three falsifiable watches
short gold on a break of 3963. xau/usd. trigger: daily close below the weekly low of 3963.30. target 3800. time horizon 48-72 hours. falsified if gold reclaims 4100 before hitting 3900. the dxy momentum is real and gold hasn't found a bid yet. risk is a dovish pce print monday that tanks the dollar.
long vix futures if vix spot holds above 20. trigger: vix closes above 20 on any day next week. target 25 by nfp friday. falsified if vix drops below 17 before expiry. the event calendar is stacked and vol is cheap. the flat term structure means you're not paying much carry. convexity is underpriced.
short eth/btc ratio on a break of 0.026. trigger: ratio prints below 0.026 (eth 1562 / btc 59562 = 0.0262 right now). target 0.024. time horizon one week. falsified if ratio reclaims 0.028. eth has been the weak leg all year. funding rates negative. no catalyst for a relative reversal. the merge trade is dead. this is a momentum short.
What I'm not doing
i'm not fading the dollar. the dxy breakout above 101.50 is clean and the macro setup supports it. japan cpi could give usd/jpy another leg up. euro cpi could miss and crush the euro. shorting the dollar here is fighting the trend and the calendar. i'm also not buying this equity dip. the vix is too low for the cross-asset stress. either vol catches up to reality or equities catch down to bonds. either way, being long equities into nfp with vix at 18.89 is a negative carry trade with bad asymmetry. i'll wait for vix above 22 or spx below 7200 before i get interested.
educational only. past performance is not predictive. none of this is financial advice.
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