weekly simulation: 2026-07-02
cross-asset state, what's on the schedule, where the fleet sits
Last week
spx tagged 7521 intraweek, a fresh all-time high, before settling at 7483. the 1.70% weekly gain came with vix collapsing to 15.97, down nearly 11% on the week. that's not a grind higher. that's a melt-up with vol crushed. the 10y yield slipped to 4.47%, down 75bp on the week, so the bond market is not confirming the equity exuberance. someone's wrong.
gold printed 4078, also a new high, closing the week at 4063. the dollar index sagged to 101.05 before recovering to 101.40. gold and bonds rallying together while equities levitate is a weird constellation. usually means liquidity is sloshing around looking for a home, or someone's hedging something they're not saying out loud.
btc couldn't hold 60k. closed the week at 59668, down 0.58%, rangebound between 58.1k and 60.8k. eth managed a 1.60% gain to 1601 but that's noise. crypto is not participating in the risk-on move. that divergence is the most interesting signal on the board right now.
What's on the schedule
US average hourly earnings, NFP, unemployment rate (today). consensus expects continued labor market strength. asymmetry: if wage growth surprises above 0.4% m/m, the 10y could snap back toward 4.50% and pressure equities. if NFP prints below 150k, gold likely breaks 4100. the vix at 15.97 is pricing almost no fear. any miss is amplified.
BOJ tankan survey just dropped. manufacturing sentiment improving but services softening. USDJPY at 162.56 is testing the upper end of the recent range. if it breaks 163, the intervention chatter gets loud. asymmetry: a break above 163 probably gets faded hard within 48 hours. the BoJ has been jawboning but hasn't acted. that changes if we print 164.
china CPI came in hot (2.5y high). not directly tradeable for most of us but it feeds the global inflation narrative. if US data also runs hot today, the "transitory" crowd gets quieter. gold likes that. equities don't.
Cross-asset read
the vix at 15.97 with SPX at all-time highs is a vol seller's dream and a tail hedger's nightmare. the term structure is in contango, front month cheap relative to back. that's normal in a grind-up but it means protection is on sale. someone's been selling vol aggressively. the 10y at 4.47% with equities at highs suggests the bond market is pricing slower growth, not just lower inflation. gold at 4063 confirms the real-yield compression story. crypto's failure to rally alongside equities is the odd man out. either equities are wrong and crypto is right, or crypto is just suffering from its own idiosyncratic overhang. i lean toward the latter but i'm watching.
Where the FalsifyLab fleet sits
all bots are flat. no open positions across the fleet. crucible-paper is the standout, up 45.95% mtd on paper equity of 145.9k, pf 2.23. that's a monster month but it's paper, not live. assay-paper is also performing, pf 2.94, up 0.52% mtd. vega29 and vega34 are live, both flat, both with solid paper pfs (1.49 and 1.74). lyra-gold is the best live performer historically, pf 2.42, equity 14.8k, also flat. volforge is new, pf 999 is a placeholder, no drawdown history yet. soulz is flat, pf 1.25. the fleet is in wait-and-see mode. no one wants to be caught in NFP chop.
Three falsifiable watches
short spx via 0dte put spreads if nfp prints above 275k and ahe prints above 0.4% simultaneously. the asymmetry is that a hot labor print forces the 10y back above 4.50% and equities correct 1.5-2% intraday. trigger: both numbers beat. falsified if spx holds 7450 within 2 hours of the print. time horizon: today's session only.
long xau/usd on a break of 4080 with a stop at 4040. the trend is intact, the dollar is weak, and real yields are compressing. if nfp misses, gold runs to 4120-4150 quickly. asymmetry: risking 40 points to make 40-70. falsified if gold closes below 4040 today. time horizon: 48 hours.
short btc/usd if it breaks 58k with volume. the divergence from equities is telling. if risk-on can't lift btc above 60.8k resistance, a breakdown below 58k opens the door to 55k. trigger: daily close below 58111. falsified if btc reclaims 60.8k within 48 hours. time horizon: through monday.
What I'm not doing
i considered fading the usdjpy rally above 163 but the carry is punishing. you're paying 4.47% to earn 0.50% or whatever the boj is offering. that's negative carry of roughly 4% annualized. you need a big move fast to overcome the bleed. the asymmetry is there but the timing is uncertain. i'd rather wait for an actual intervention headline than try to front-run it. also considered buying eth on the relative strength versus btc but the absolute level at 1601 is uninspiring. no catalyst until the etf flow data turns convincingly positive.
educational only. past performance is not predictive. none of this is financial advice.
— research and educational content. not investment, legal, or tax advice. do your own research. positions and views may change without notice.