weekly simulation: 2026-07-06
cross-asset state, what's on the schedule, where the fleet sits
Last week
spx pushed through 7500 intraday before settling at 7483, up 1.71% on the week. the real story was the vix collapse. down 14.5% to 16.15. that is a vol crush that says the market is pricing nothing but smooth sailing into cpi week. dangerous complacency.
crypto had a week. btc up 8.73% to 63673, eth up 14.1% to 1790. eth outperformed btc by over 5 percentage points. that is a risk-on rotation signal within crypto. the range on eth was 1551 to 1804, meaning it closed near the top of the weekly range. btc also closed near its high of 63636. momentum is intact but extended.
gold quietly up 2.9% to 4196, near the top of its weekly range at 4214. dxy down 0.48% to 100.88. the dollar weakness and gold strength together suggest real rates are not the only driver. something else is bidding gold. maybe geopolitical, maybe central bank buying, maybe just a beta to the everything rally. unclear.
What's on the schedule
ISM services today. consensus unknown but the asymmetry is simple. above 55 and the soft landing narrative strengthens, risk-on continues, vix stays crushed. below 50 and the growth scare trade returns. vix could gap from 16 to 20 in a session. that would hurt everything correlated to spx.
US CPI wednesday. the big one. core cpi expected direction matters less than the surprise. a hot print above 0.3% m/m and the 10y yield breaks 4.51 to the upside, testing 4.60. that kills the gold rally and pressures btc. a cool print below 0.2% and the 10y drops toward 4.37, dollar breaks 100.50, everything rallies.
FOMC minutes wednesday. same day as cpi. the minutes are from the june meeting. market will parse for any dissent on the pause. if multiple members wanted a cut, that is dovish and supports the everything rally. if the committee was unified on holding, it is neutral.
NZ rate decision wednesday. RBNZ expected to hold at 5.5%. the asymmetry is in the statement language. any hint of cuts and NZDUSD breaks 0.62. hawkish hold and it stays rangebound. low direct impact on US markets but a dovish surprise adds to global risk-on sentiment.
Cross-asset read
the 10y yield at 4.49 is testing the top of its recent range at 4.51. if it breaks higher, the correlation regime shifts. equities have been ignoring yields because the AI narrative is strong. but at some point, discount rates matter. the vix at 16.15 is pricing zero fear. the term structure is in contango. this is a market that has priced out tail risk. cpi is the obvious catalyst to reintroduce it. gold at 4196 with a 2.9% weekly gain while yields rose is unusual. gold is either sniffing out a cpi miss or responding to something else. i am watching the gold/btc ratio. if gold continues to outperform btc, it suggests a flight to safety under the surface of the risk-on tape.
Where the FalsifyLab fleet sits
assay-paper is up 34.38% mtd with a pf of 2.94. crucible-paper is up 45.95% mtd with a pf of 2.23. both are paper bots, so these are backtest-equivalent signals, not live pnl. vega29 is flat with a small gain, pf 1.49. vega34 is down 2.29% mtd, pf 1.74. lyra-gold is flat, pf 2.42. volforge is flat with no track record yet. soulz is flat, pf 1.25. the fleet is mostly in wait mode ahead of cpi. no open positions across any bot. that is the right posture given the event risk this week.
Three falsifiable watches
eth/btc ratio above 0.0285 by wednesday cpi close confirms crypto risk-on rotation. if eth holds above 1800 and btc stays below 64000, the ratio breaks higher. falsified if btc rallies more than eth on a dovish cpi print. time horizon 48 hours.
vix below 15.50 post-cpi would be a vol-selling signal. if cpi comes in cool and vix drops through 15.50, the market is pricing a one-way summer rally. i would watch for a vix term structure flattening as a sign the trade is crowded. falsified if vix spikes above 20 on any cpi surprise. time horizon wednesday close.
gold 4200 is the level. a daily close above 4214, the weekly high, with dxy below 100.50 opens a move to 4300. the catalyst is a dovish cpi or a geopolitical shock. falsified if gold rejects 4200 and closes below 4150. time horizon friday close.
What I'm not doing
i am not fading the crypto rally into cpi. the momentum is strong and the eth outperformance is a genuine risk-on signal. shorting into event risk with vol this low is a negative carry trade. i am also not buying vix calls here. the premium is cheap but the timing is everything. if cpi is cool, vix goes to 14 and the calls expire worthless. better to wait for the event to pass and then assess the vol regime. i considered a gold breakout trade but the cpi correlation is too binary. if cpi is hot, gold gets hit with yields. if cpi is cool, gold rallies but so does everything else. the risk/reward is symmetric, not convex.
educational only. past performance is not predictive. none of this is financial advice.
— research and educational content. not investment, legal, or tax advice. do your own research. positions and views may change without notice.