weekly simulation: 2026-07-10
cross-asset state, what's on the schedule, where the fleet sits
Last week
spx pushed to 7551, a fresh high, while ndx slipped 0.28% and couldn't reclaim 30k. rotation out of tech into broader market. vix dropped 4.5% to 15.84, complacency creeping back in. gold rallied 1.6% to 4133, still below the week's high of 4199 but holding above 4050 support. btc flat at 63k, eth down 2.1% to 1741, crypto risk appetite fading.
the real story is the 10y yield at 4.54, up 2.74% on the week. rates grinding higher while equities shrug. dxy broke below 101, down 0.52%. dollar weakness and rising yields, an unusual combination. market pricing something the fed isn't saying yet. warsh's silence is loud.
What's on the schedule
canada employment today. asymmetry: strong print above 20k pushes usd/cad below 1.36, weak print below -10k sends it above 1.38. market expects 15k, unemployment 6.2%. cad crosses will move.
uk gdp monday. consensus 0.1% m/m. below zero and cable tests 1.25, above 0.3% and 1.28 comes into play. gbp/usd currently 1.2780.
us retail sales wednesday. the real catalyst. above 0.5% m/m and the 10y breaks 4.60, vix likely craters further. below -0.2% and the soft landing narrative cracks, gold rips through 4200.
Cross-asset read
the 10y at 4.54 with vix at 15.84 is a tension i'm watching. historically, yields this high come with vol in the 20s, not mid-teens. either vol is wrong and a spike is coming, or yields are wrong and a reversal lower is imminent. gold's bid at 4133 despite rising real yields suggests the latter. someone's buying insurance. the dollar's slide to 100.86 while yields rise tells me capital is flowing out of us assets, not into them. emerging markets and commodities are the destination. btc at 63k is rangebound, no directional signal, but eth's 2.1% weekly drop says risk appetite in crypto is waning. divergence between majors.
Where the FalsifyLab fleet sits
assay-paper and crucible-paper are the standouts, up 34.4% and 45.9% mtd respectively. both are paper strategies, no live capital at risk yet. vega29 and vega34 are flat, no open positions, sitting on small gains. lyra-gold is flat with no open positions, pf 2.42, drawdown contained at 2.05%. volforge is flat, no track record to speak of. soulz is flat, pf 1.25, still early.
fleet is largely in wait mode. no bots are carrying open risk. that's either discipline or hesitation. given the macro crosscurrents, i'll call it discipline.
Three falsifiable watches
long gold via xau/usd on a break above 4200. entry on daily close above 4200, stop at 4050, target 4350. time horizon 2 weeks. falsified if xau/usd closes below 4050 before triggering. the asymmetry is favorable, convexity from geopolitical risk and dollar weakness. carry cost is the opportunity cost of not being in yield, but the vol-adjusted return profile works.
short ndx via sqqq on failure at 30k. entry if ndx rejects 30k twice on the daily, stop above 30.5k, target 28k. time horizon 10 sessions. falsified if ndx closes above 30.5k. the rotation out of tech is real, sk hynix raising 26.5b in a secondary, supply overhang. if ndx can't reclaim 30k, the path lower opens.
long usd/jpy on a break above 163. entry on daily close above 163, stop at 161.5, target 165. time horizon 2 weeks. falsified if usd/jpy breaks below 161. boj cgpi this week, no surprise, japan rates anchored. dollar weakness against majors but not against yen. carry trade still alive.
What i'm not doing
i'm not shorting bonds here. the 10y at 4.54 looks tempting for a fade, but the trend is intact and retail sales could easily print hot. the risk/reward on a bond short squeeze isn't there yet. i'm also not touching eth despite the 2.1% drop. no catalyst, no vol expansion, no edge. btc rangebound at 63k, no trade. patience.
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— research and educational content. not investment, legal, or tax advice. do your own research. positions and views may change without notice.